‘I am not an astrologer’: Principal secy to PM declines to predict India’s next GDP quarter

File photo: Principal secretary to PM PK Mishra

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister’s principal secretary PK Mishra on Friday declined to predict India’s GDP performance for the next quarter, saying, “I am not an astrologer to predict. You will see when it is announced.”Mishra’s comment came as India’s economy enters the second quarter of FY27 after recording stronger-than-expected growth of 7.8% in the April-June period. The latest finance ministry assessment has put growth in the July-September quarter at an estimated 7.3%, suggesting that the economy may have maintained its momentum even as the pace moderated from the previous quarter.

What is the next GDP number expected to show?

The finance ministry’s latest Monthly Economic Review, released on Thursday, projected real GDP growth at 7.3% for the September quarter through its nowcasting model. That would be lower than the 7.8% recorded in Q1, but would still point to continued expansion at a relatively strong pace.The ministry said growth momentum had continued into the second quarter, although at a more measured pace. E-way bill generation and manufacturing PMI showed some moderation, while services activity strengthened in August, supported by new business and employment.Electricity and fuel consumption also remained healthy, bank credit continued to expand and production of capital and infrastructure goods pointed to continued strength in investment. Automobile sales showed healthy growth across rural and urban markets, indicating broad-based consumption, the ministry said.The latest estimate follows a stronger-than-expected first quarter. India’s GDP grew 7.8% in April-June, beating the RBI’s earlier projection of 7% and marking the highest first-quarter growth in the current GDP series.

Why are growth forecasts being revised upwards?

The stronger Q1 performance has prompted several global institutions to raise their forecasts for India’s growth for FY27.The OECD has raised its forecast to 7.1% from 6.3%, while S&P Global Ratings and the Asian Development Bank now expect 7% growth. Fitch has raised its projection to 6.9%, while Moody’s has also revised its forecast to 7%. The RBI’s FY27 growth estimate stands at 6.7%.The upgrades have been linked to resilient domestic demand, investment, manufacturing activity and government spending. The ADB has also pointed to continued strength in services, manufacturing and consumption.Earlier GDP reports showed that the Q1 expansion was supported by broad-based growth, with real GVA rising 8.2%. Gross fixed capital formation grew 11.9%, while private final consumption expenditure rose 7.1%. Manufacturing grew 9.0%, while financial, real estate and professional services expanded 12.1%.But the stronger growth outlook comes against a backdrop of continuing global uncertainty.The finance ministry has flagged the impact of the West Asia conflict on energy markets and trade routes, while warning that geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruptions could keep energy prices volatile and tighten global financial conditions.The RBI has similarly said the Indian economy has remained resilient, but identified geopolitical tensions and weather-related uncertainties as key downside risks. It also noted that the sharp rise in oil prices following the escalation of the West Asia conflict could revive inflationary pressures and disrupt supply chains.The OECD has also warned that reduced purchasing power could weaken growth in the second half of the year, while the agencies have flagged higher energy prices, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty as risks to the outlook.