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Bullion Market Outlook: Gold and Silver Eye Further Gains Amid Global Cues

Bullion prices could extend their recent upward trajectory in the coming week, though the momentum will be shaped by ongoing geopolitical tensions and upcoming global economic indicators. Analysts note that safe-haven interest and shifting monetary expectations continue to offer underlying support for precious metals.

What Happened

During the previous trading week, domestic and international gold and silver prices logged noticeable gains. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for October delivery gained Rs 2,686, or approximately 2 per cent, ending at Rs 1.54 lakh per 10 grams. Over the course of the month, MCX gold has climbed nearly 9.5 per cent. Silver futures for September delivery advanced Rs 4,458, or 1.9 per cent, settling at Rs 2.35 lakh per kilogram.

In global trade, Comex gold futures for December delivery advanced by $37.6, or nearly 1 per cent, closing at $4,437.3 per ounce, marking a second straight weekly increase. Silver rose $1.61, or 2.5 per cent, to end at $65.11 per ounce in New York. Market analysts noted that bullion prices found support as traders scaled down expectations of a September interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve following weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll figures and steady inflation numbers.

Key Highlights

  • MCX gold futures for October delivery finished the week at Rs 1.54 lakh per 10 grams, up by nearly 2 per cent.
  • MCX silver futures for September delivery settled higher at Rs 2.35 lakh per kilogram after a 1.9 per cent increase.
  • Comex gold futures closed at $4,437.3 per ounce, while New York silver finished at $65.11 per ounce.
  • JM Financial Services projects gold could move toward Rs 1.57 lakh per 10 grams and silver toward Rs 2.54 lakh per kilogram.
  • Safe-haven demand remains supported by ongoing conflict in the Middle East and US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.
  • LKP Securities highlights that after an August surge of roughly 9.5 per cent on the MCX, gold may face consolidation and intermittent profit-taking.

Why This Matters

Precious metals are responding to a confluence of macroeconomic data and geopolitical risk. Continued friction in the Middle East and surrounding the Strait of Hormuz maintains safe-haven interest because no diplomatic resolution has emerged. Simultaneously, tempered expectations around US interest rate hikes reduce downward pressure on non-yielding assets like bullion, although sharp multi-week gains have also increased the potential for short-term profit-booking at higher price levels.

What to Watch Next

Investors and market participants will monitor several critical economic and policy indicators in the coming days:

  • The release of the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes for clarification on the monetary policy direction.
  • United States housing and trade statistics.
  • Inflation metrics scheduled from the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and Japan.
  • Economic data releases from China to gauge demand trends in industrial metals.
  • Geopolitical developments across the Middle East and movements in the US dollar.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the projected price targets for gold and silver?

According to Pranav Mer of JM Financial Services, the outlook remains positive, with gold projected to move toward Rs 1.57 lakh per 10 grams and silver toward Rs 2.54 lakh per kilogram.

Why did the US Federal Reserve rate expectations shift?

Traders pared back bets on a September Federal Reserve rate hike after weaker-than-anticipated US non-farm payroll figures and steady inflation data were released.

What factors could lead to price consolidation?

Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities observed that an August gain of nearly 9.5 per cent in MCX gold has heightened the likelihood of consolidation and periodic profit-taking at elevated levels.

Source: Based on reporting from The Times of India and PTI analyst commentary.