Rupee near record lows: Will exporters gain competitiveness or lose on rising import costs? All you need to know

The Indian rupee traded near record lows against the US dollar on Tuesday, slipping to 88.15 after closing at an all-time low of 88.18 a day earlier. The depreciation has provided exporters with better price competitiveness but raised concerns for import-heavy sectors.Exporters said the fall in the rupee presents a mixed picture. “On one hand, it enhances the price competitiveness of Indian products in global markets, particularly as exporters diversify beyond the US. On the other hand, for sectors with high import dependence such as gems and jewellery, petroleum products, and electronics, the cost of imported inputs will partly offset the currency advantage, squeezing margins,” Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) Director General Ajay Sahai said, PTI quoted him as saying.Exporters diversify amid tariff threatThe government has urged exporters to diversify shipments beyond the US, warning that Washington’s 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods could dent shipments. The US accounts for about 20 per cent of India’s exports, amounting to $86.5 billion in 2024-25 out of a total of $437 billion.Sahai added that the rupee’s weakness offers an opportunity to deepen presence in emerging markets while pushing for greater domestic value addition. “That will reduce import intensity and ensure sustainable export growth,” he said.Importers face rising billsFor importers, the impact has been immediate. “The primary and immediate impact of a depreciating rupee is on the importers who will have to shell out more for the same quantity and price. However, it is a boon for the exporters as they receive more rupees in exchange for dollars,” said a trader, who did not wish to be named.India meets 85 per cent of its oil needs through imports, making petroleum products particularly vulnerable. The basket of imports also includes crude oil, coal, plastic materials, chemicals, electronic goods, vegetable oil, fertiliser, machinery, gold, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, and iron and steel. Overseas education and foreign travel are also expected to become costlier.Kanpur-based Growmore International Ltd MD Yadvendra Singh Sachan said that stability was crucial. “Any volatility in the value is not good for both exporters and importers. At the current scenario, 85 will be better,” he said.The rupee’s slide has been attributed to uncertainty over the Indo-US trade deal, capital market outflows, and weak domestic equities. Forex traders said risks remain skewed to the downside amid tariff concerns.India’s exports snapped a two-month decline with a 7.29 per cent rise to $37.24 billion in July, but the trade deficit widened to an eight-month high of $27.35 billion. During April-July 2025-26, exports rose 3.07 per cent to $149.2 billion while imports increased 5.36 per cent to $244.01 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $94.81 billion.