From oil to outrage: How India plans to counter Trump’s tariff threat
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened to “very substantially” raise tariffs on Indian goods – escalating the 25% duty already imposed last week. The reason? New Delhi’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil.In a CNBC interview, Trump declared, “They’re fuelling the war machine… and if they’re going to do that, then I’m not going to be happy.”He also dismissed India’s reported offer of zero tariffs on American goods as insufficient, saying, “That’s not good enough, because of what they’re doing with oil.”The new threat could hit Indian exporters hard – especially in textiles, engineering, seafood, chemicals and leather – and further derail the long-pending US-India trade agreement that officials on both sides had been negotiating for months.Why it matters
- The abrupt tariff escalation deepens a trade rift with significant economic and geopolitical consequences:
- As per a Bloomberg report, a 25% tariff could reduce India’s GDP growth by 0.3 percentage point, with further penalties likely to weaken capital inflows and investment, according to HSBC’s Pranjul Bhandari.
- The commerce ministry estimates that such a tariff would hit about 10% of India’s exports between July and September.
- Financial shockwaves: India’s BSE Sensex dropped 0.38%, and the rupee lost 0.17% against the dollar.
- Export exposure: A 25%-plus tariff threatens nearly half of India’s $85 billion in US exports.
- Diplomatic U-turn: Trump’s sharp language contrasts with the once-cozy optics between him and Prime Minister Narendra Modi – both of whom built personal chemistry on populism and mutual flattery.
- “This friendship has turned out to be expensive,” quipped Indian opposition leader Jairam Ramesh.
The big pictureIndia has become the largest seaborne buyer of Russian crude, importing nearly 1.75 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025 – a 1% rise over last year. While Washington initially encouraged India’s role in maintaining stable global oil flows, Trump now says those purchases fund Putin’s war effort in Ukraine.“If you get energy down another $10 a barrel, [Putin] is going to have no choice… because his economy stinks,” Trump told CNBC.But Indian officials hit back, accusing the US and Europe of double standards. In a blistering response, the ministry of external affairs (MEA) said: “It is unjustified to single out India… The very nations criticizing India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia.”It cited:
- The EU’s €78 billion trade with Russia in 2024, including 16.5 million tons of LNG
- US imports of Russian uranium, palladium and chemicals
What they’re saying
- Trump: “India’s economy is dead… they’re buying massive amounts of Russian oil and reselling it for big profits.”
- The MEA: “India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security.”
- Eric Garcetti (former US ambassador): “India bought Russian oil because we wanted somebody to buy Russian oil at a price cap… It was the design of the policy.”
- Ashok Malik, the Asia Group: “Fast and loose statements are putting 25 years of bipartisan effort at risk.”
- Indrani Bagchi, Ananta Centre: “Trump wants Modi to call and fold. That’s not India’s style.”
Zoom in: India’s plan to deal with Trump’s tariff threatAt a rally in Varanasi, PM Narendra Modi has been encouraging Indians to support local products as a way to cushion the impact of weakening global demand.Despite the volatility, New Delhi is not looking to escalate. Instead, it’s working behind the scenes on a multi-pronged strategy to contain economic fallout and stabilize relations.1. No subsidies – but sectoral supportCommerce minister Piyush Goyal met exporters and ruled out direct subsidies, but floated other “innovative” measures:
- Banks may recalibrate risk models to reduce borrowing costs for MSMEs.
- The government could cut testing and certification fees for small firms.
- An Export Promotion Mission with additional funding is on the table.
According to EEPC India, engineering exports alone may drop $4–5 billion under the current tariffs. The textile sector fears closure of units and job losses.“Some American buyers say they’ll buy from Chinese suppliers despite higher tariffs because they’re more cost-competitive,” said Sudhir Sekhri, AEPC chairman.2. Dairy diplomacy & import trade-offsAs per a Bloomberg report, in a significant policy shift, India may offer limited market access in dairy – a long-standing US demand. Officials are exploring options to import:
- Cheese not produced in India
- Condensed milk – with labeling confirming plant-based feed (to respect Indian religious sensitivities)
This would mark a major concession, especially since India denied similar access to the UK in its free trade talks.3. Strategic messaging to the WestIndia has reframed its Russian oil purchases not as defiance, but necessity:
- Global oil routes shifted after Europe began cornering Gulf supplies.
- India’s refineries kept global prices stable by purchasing Russian barrels.
- New Delhi argues it shouldn’t be punished for global realignments it didn’t cause – especially when other BRICS countries like China continue similar purchases without facing equivalent penalties.
4. Exporters pivot to branding, niche marketsAccording to a report in the Economic Times, the government is urging exporters to build strong Indian brands that can weather tariff shocks and reduce dependency on price-sensitive segments.“It is important for Indian exporters to do brand building and promotion to come out of the clutches of any subsidies amid the US tariffs,” a government official told the ET.Sectors like marine exports are also being encouraged to propose employment-linked schemes to retain jobs and capacity. A representative from an export promotion council told ET: “Clients won’t shift overnight – Ecuador, for example, lacks scale to replace India in shrimp exports.”5. Back-channel diplomacy and restraintThe Modi government is keen to avoid public confrontation, even as Trump doubles down on pressure.National security adviser Ajit Doval and foreign minister S Jaishankar are expected to continue planned visits to Moscow, signaling no policy reversal – but also no inflammatory rhetoric aimed at Washington.“My sense is the government will contain this… and will not escalate,” said Bagchi. The goal: de-escalate quietly, while protecting key sectors and trade ambitions.Between the linesAnalysts see Trump’s threats as both policy and performance. His demands – halt oil from Russia, lower tariffs, and give market access – may be part of a high-stakes negotiation strategy rather than fixed policy.India is betting on Trump’s volatility – hoping it’s tactical bluster ahead of the November 2025 US elections, not a permanent break.But if tariffs stick and widen, it risks upending Modi’s narrative of having secured India’s global stature and could trigger long-term shifts in India’s export map.What’s next
- August 7: Tariffs rise to 25% across the board, with potential penalties for oil-related trade.
- August 8: Trump’s deadline for Russia to halt the war, or face secondary sanctions.
- Fall 2025: US elections loom, meaning India may hold its response in check until the political dust settles.
- India’s response so far is firm but cautious – balancing domestic economic impact, diplomatic finesse, and the political need to project strength without confrontation.
- The next 72 hours will test whether back-channel diplomacy or further escalation defines the next chapter of US-India ties.
(With inputs from agencies)
Source: timesofindia.indiatimes.com