Stock Market Updates 10 Sept 2025: Sensex, Nifty open firm

JPM on Capital Goods

Pockets of opportunity amidst a capex breather

Capex set to grow at about 10-11% over medium term

Stock prices factoring in a large part of that deceleration

A 10% growth environment offers pockets of opportunity for healthy earnings growth

Stick to growth and visibility: Prefer L&T, CG Power, Cummins and Thermax

Trading multiples are now cheaper

Thermax – Initiate Overweight with TP of Rs 3869

Cummins – Initiate Overweight with TP of Rs 4649

CG Power – Initiate Overweight with TP of Rs 840

Praj Industries – Initiate Neutral with TP of Rs 403

ABB – Initiate Neutral with TP of Rs 5639

Siemens – Initiate Underweight with TP of Rs 2795

BHEL – Initiate Underweight with TP of Rs 185

UBS in Pipe Cos

Initiate Buy on Astral, TP Rs 1800

Initiate Sell on Supreme, TP Rs 3500

Expect plastic pipe sales volume recovery in H2 FY26, led by govt. spending, real estate completions, & rising agriculture income

Expect high single-digit sector sales volume growth in FY27

PVC prices, near bottom, may rebound on China’s anti-involution push & Indian government measures like BIS & anti-dumping duties

Think market is underestimating PVC price upside & margin gains

Astral – Buy due to margin upside with backward integration

Supreme – Sell due to high capex, ROCE concerns & challenges in its other businesses

UBS on Supreme Industries

Recommendation Sell, Target Price ₹3500

Testing times ahead for industry leader

Multiple challenges ahead

Bigger growth challenges compared to peers

Overshooting capex, sluggish return profile and unclear succession

UBS on Astral

Target Price ₹1800, Recommendation Buy

Consistent performer; an upcycle underway

Well positioned to deliver strong performance

Industry tailwinds to support pipes outperformance track record.

Other segments steady; prudent capex to aid FCF and ROCE

CLSA on Life Insurance

August 2025: Slow month

Axis Max Life reported healthy growth in total APE, while HDFC Life and SBI Life were up 1%-3%.

ICICI Pru Life reported a 9% YoY decline in total APE in August.

Expect demand to pick up once the new rates take effect on 22 September 2025.

MS on Life Insurance

Individual new SA growth was stronger than individual APE across most large private players.

SBI Life posted strong 73% YoY growth due to sustained strength in new retail protection products launched at the end of F2Q25.

HDFC Life’s individual new SA growth was 13% YoY, while IPRU Life reported a 5% decline

HSBC on Insurance

Growth slowdown as sales postponed

Individual APE growth for the sector declined 10% MoM

Suspect deferment of sales in anticipation of GST cuts

Trends in September 2025 could remain weak

Individual APE growth should improve from Q3FY26 onwards

MS on Titagarh

OW, TP Rs 1017

Large tender for passenger business worth Rs210bn

CO remains well placed to tap this opportunity, given benign competitive environment (current key players include Titagarh, Alstom, BEML), large capacity, strong engineering capabilities, & technology support

GS on Amber

Target Price ₹7330; Earlier Target ₹6950

Recommendation Neutral

Estimate PCB manufacturing can contribute upto 12% of Amber’s revenues and 26% of EBITDA by FY30

Expect Amber to more than double its overall share of the bare PCB market in India

Export opportunity will be limited

CLSA on UltraTech

Recommendation Outperform, Target Price ₹13500

Optimistic of a demand recovery in 2H helped by recent government measures (income tax cuts / interest rate reduction/GST cut across board)

While GST cut must be fully passed through, it provides some headroom for medium term price increase considering cost inflation

Co est. removal of coal cess (and replacement by GST) will reduce cost by Rs20/T

Benefit for companies with higher coal proportion in the mix is likely to be higher, per co

Cost savings target of Rs300/T remains intact with Rs86/T already achieved so far. In wires & cables, focus remains on capacity ramp-up and ROCEs

CLSA on L&T

O-P TP Rs 4320

Optimistic on meeting its guidance in FY26, as it had a good start with 1Q E&C orders up 41 %YoY, PAT up 31% YoY and 230bps YoY ROE expansion

Capex cycle has begun well for L&T with govt doubling capex over FY19-24 and L&T winning large projects.

Now L&T is operating on a different plane as a global EPC company with far bigger target market (+64% YTD) to “pick-and-choose” orders helping its medium-term margin.

A big opportunity for FY26 is spread across 12-15 large US$1bn+ projects in the Middle Eastern (ME) & India, and margin expansion guidance should address market concern

MOSL on Ultratech

Target Price: ₹15,200 vs ₹14,600 earlier (Maintain Buy)

Strengthened market presence in southern region via organic & inorganic expansions

Domestic grey cement capacity to rise to 212.2 mtpa by FY27 (from 183.4 mtpa in FY25)

On track to achieve 200 mtpa capacity ahead of schedule; next expansion phase likely soon

Estimated capacity CAGR ~6% (FY25-28) and volume CAGR ~12% with focus on utilization ramp-up

Market share seen rising to ~32% by FY28

Estimated CAGR (FY25-28): Revenue ~14% | EBITDA ~25% | PAT~30%

Consolidated volume CAGR ~12%; EBITDA/t projected at 1,157 / ₹1,252 / ₹1,286 in FY26/27/28

Estimated cumulative OCF of ₹52,100 cr (FY26-28) vs 30,600 cr (FY23-25)

Estimated cumulative FCF of ₹26,600 cr (FY26-28), supported by inorganic growth

Net debt to peak at ₹17,700 cr in FY25 (1.4x EBITDA); expected to fall to ₹15,500 cr in FY26 (1.2x) and ₹10,000 cr in FY27 (0.6x)

Nomura on Cummins

Buy, TP Rs 4500

Cost efficiencies being ingrained in growth ethos

Raise FY27-28F EBITDA by 2%

Est. 18% PAT CAGR over FY25-28F with RoE of 33%

BESS to further bolster value proposition of KKC’s product offerings

Buoyant demand outlook; expectation of private capex revival led by GST cuts

JPM on Oil & Gas

IGL has outperformed MAHGL noticeably post-results (c.8% outperformance over one month), yet it faces significantly larger earnings risks in near term, driven by rising domestic gas prices and a depreciating rupee.

At current prices, unit gross margin for both IGL and MAHGL in 3Q could be c.8-10% lower than in 1Q

This would imply a c.20% miss in FY26E earnings for IGL, but none for MAHGL.

IGL’s (UW) recent outperformance could thus offer a good opportunity to switch over to MAHGL (N)

HSBC on Aster DM

Recommendation Buy, Target Price ₹680

Proposed merger of Aster with QCIL on track to close by Q4FY26

Both entities focusing on operational ramp-up

QCIL focusing on talent, technology, and infrastructure to drive operational efficiency and higher profitability

Sustained growth in Kerala and Bengaluru markets key amid rising competition